The Opportunity

(Lifted from www.roninnova.ca)

The Federal election of 2006 delivered the following results for the riding of Central Nova:

Peter G. MacKay CON 17134 40.66%

Alexis MacDonald NDP 13861 32.89%

Dan Walsh LIB 10349 24.56%

David Orton GRN 671 1.59%

Allan H. Bezanson ML 124 0.29%

The first thing to note is the poor performance of David Orton, the Green Party of Canada candidate, at 1.59% of the vote. Yet, based on this level of GPC support, Elizabeth May is predicting a Green victory as the result of the May-Dion pact. Should Peter MacKay’s vote hold at 40.66 +/- and, should the gagged Liberal vote swing to Green, Ms. May would still have to take about 15% plus from Louise Lorefice, the NDP candidate. Should the combination of the latter two voting patterns hold is a long-shot, to say the least (see below, appeasement of the Federal NDP).

The 7% Solution

Now, let us throw an independent candidate into the electoral mix. Within this new electoral context, I would like to put forward the following premises about the Liberal voting block:

Judging from the outcry in the community over the May-Dion pact, a high percentage of Liberal voters may just stay home, that being their “protest vote.” This assertion is made without the benefit of a telephone pollster disturbing peoples’ evenings meals. It is a political sentiment that is percolating at the street level and that the voters of Central Nova are all aware of.

Just how exactly the Liberal vote vis-á-vis the other parties will break down is, of course, an unknown.

Contrary to Ms. May’s forecasts, I would venture the guess that she takes no more than 15% of the Liberal vote, while the Conservative and NDP votes hold pat, bringing the GPC vote in at 5% of the total vote, give or take. That leaves roughly 20% of the total vote unaccounted for, i.e. the Liberal vote. I would like to propose that of the Liberal vote left in political limbo, one-third of it (7% of the riding’s total vote) would support an independent candidacy that is targeting the May-Dion pact as political and electoral theft, leaving the balance of the Liberal vote to stay home, or vote Conservative or NDP.

Should an unknown independent running as an eco-libertarian garner more votes than Ms. May, then the writing would very likely be on the wall. I would imagine that only political junkies are tuning into this site, so you do the math. The very intent of the May-Dion pact, i.e. the gagging of the Liberal Central Nova constituency, could back-fire and be inverted by the electoral voice of a small portion of that very constituency to determine some serious political consequences. Karma is always just, if at times hard. Such is the responsibility and power that 30% of the Liberal constituency now tentatively holds in its hands by virtue of this independent candidacy. The “7% solution” is a political option that can only be put into play by an independent candidate. My independent candidacy is merely a medium for the constituency’s sentiments…and the eventual electoral choice of that constituency. As I perceive it, 3,000 voters out of roughly 42,000 hold in their hands significant political leverage and sway. If this electoral potential is contrasted against a position of being totally disenfranchised (courtesy of May-Dion), then we have the makings of something very serious here. As the saying goes, the glass is either half empty or half full. My job is to bring into focus a perception for the electorate’s benefit that leans towards “half full.” The situation before one’s eyes remains the same. However, an altered perception of the situation exposes entirely different possibilities.

The NDP candidate, Louise Lorefice, is on record as saying that the May-Dion pact is “a gift” for the NDP. When one looks at the electoral numbers, this could very well be the case. Actually, an NDP victory in Central Nova could be the intent behind the May-Dion pact, a gesture of appeasement to Jack Layton and the Federal NDP to pave the way for an attempt to unite the left. When reports first surfaced that the Greens and Liberals were hunkered down behind closed doors, the reported item on the table was how to unseat Peter MacKay, not necessarily how to elect Ms. May.

As for Peter MacKay and the Conservatives, well, in all likelihood Mr. MacKay holds the seat of Central Nova, if the Liberal vote does not swarm over to the NDP.

An independent candidacy in Central Nova offers the voters a principled and realistic electoral option. There is a term for this. It is called grass-roots democracy. This is the political opportunity as I see it. This is what the Liberal constituency can do to salvage its integrity and send a clear signal to both the national Greens and Liberals that, in spite of a gun held to its head, democracy is alive and well in Central Nova.

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The Situation

(Lifted from www.roninnova.ca)

Political Platform I (Visible)

As an eco-libertarian and bio-regionalist, I maintain the following:

  • The May-Dion pact, separate from Green and Liberal philosophies, is a political act. As such, it can be contested at the electoral level. For those Liberal voters who are opposed to having their freedom of political expression denied and who will not vote Green, Conservative or NDP, I am offering the electoral option for a more constructive protest vote than merely staying home on election night. Needless to say, the Green principle of grass-roots democracy is out the window.
  • The Green Party of Canada (GPC) has betrayed and abandoned the core Green political principles of bioregionalism and political decentralization. With climate change a given, it is imperative for a political entity to own these principles as it is the nation’s regions that will be affected in different ways. Where the ecological problems will be is where the solutions will need to be crafted with the aid of the Federal government.
  • The Federal government should seriously consider endorsing the commercial designation of Atlantica, with the proviso that Nova Scotia’s rolling stock be upgraded. Rail transport would displace the high volume of truck traffic, with its high levels of pollution, to transport incoming goods at the province’s ports. It’s not rocket science. The upgrading of the province’s rolling stock translates into a vast opportunity for TrentonWorks, a business whose business is steel and the manufacture of rail cars.

As a conscientious human being, I maintain the following:

  • The voters of Central Nova have the democratic right to freedom of expression. Given a realistic political medium and opportunity, they have the right and the obligation to themselves to correct the blatant democratic wrong committed unto them by Elizabeth May and Stéphane Dion as leaders of their respective political parties.

Addendum:

I was a member of the first Green party founded in the Americas, the Green Party of British Columbia. At the time of my resignation from the GPBC in 1986, I sat on the Executive and was a candidate-elect for the upcoming 1986 BC provincial elections. I have never held a party membership with any federal party.

Political Platform II (Somewhat Visible)

  • Politely, but firmly, send May-Dion packing from Central Nova

Political Platform III (Cloaked, though not hidden)

Kick-start a dialogue and philosophical exploration for the creation of a new Federal political party in the Maritimes, tentatively called The Atlantica Alliance Party, based on the following historical premises and context:

The GPC has abandoned the political principles of bioregions and decentralization. A political vacuum on the transitory cusp separating the Industrial Age from the Information/Ecological Age seems evident. Nature abhors a vacuum.

To the best of my knowledge, no one on the ecological political stage, e.g. Green parties, David Suzuki, Al Gore, etc., has yet to inform the Canadian public how the destiny of industrial civilization, i.e. global warming to name one factor, is locked into the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics, that the ecological “bullet” that is heading for our social institutions is one that cannot be dodged:

First Law: All matter and energy in the universe are constant; it cannot be created nor destroyed. Only its form can be changed, but never its essence.

Second Law (The Entropy Law): Matter and energy can only be changed in one direction, from usable to unusable, from available to unavailable, from ordered to disordered. Every time energy is transformed from one state to another, a penalty is exacted. That penalty is a loss in the amount of available energy to perform work of some kind in the future. The term for this “penalty” is entropy. The implication is that all social phenomena is moving in the direction of random chaos and waste, i.e. maximum entropy. (Work-in-progress for insertion here: 1. using the sample of compact fluorescent bulbs, show how, within a global context, the supposed energy savings are highly questionable; 2. outline how the notions of how recycling and sustainability are somewhat illusory; 3. question the political validity of claiming that they are otherwise.)

The Entropy Law is not an opinion. It is physical law, as true as the Law of Gravity. We are as blind to it and its consequences as were pre-Copernican monks to the rotation of the earth around the sun.

As such, The Kyoto Protocol is very likely too late by about 50 years. Industrial civilization is a runaway train on a downhill slope that will have to run its course. Hope and work for the best; prepare for the worst.

The 2007 Federal Budget has made evident how politically isolated and lacking in political leverage, i.e. divided and conquered, the Maritimes are. A regional electoral block of 32 ridings translates into a hard, political asset with which to negotiate future needs.

The Federal Conservative Government has delivered the historical precedent of “nation-within-a-nation” status for the region/province of Québec. The constitutional premise and template for a new Federalism to meet the ecological challenges confronting the nation are at hand.

Atlantica lies latent on the east coast, Cascadia on the west coast, Québec already established. What is the ROC to do?

To take part in the dialogue towards this possibility, please stay tuned for the launch of a dedicated site and/or blog, likely a kind of Online Steering Committee, based on visitor interest. If you are interested in taking part in this dialogue, please send an email to sebastian.ronin@ns.sympatico.ca and place in the subject field “Atlantica Alliance.”